Democrats See Republican Hand In Gay Marriage Stumbles
Image via WikipediaGay marriage advocates hope to regain their momentum in Albany this week after a series of hard knocks, but some of their allies have begun to wonder whether the string of bad news was more than just coincidence.
They are looking for signs of a coordinated effort behind their recent setbacks, which have seemingly trimmed the chances that any Republican senators might break ranks and join with Democrats to pass a same-sex marriage bill before the session ends June 20.
Mark Grisanti and Andrew Lanza — Republican senators considered potential swing votes — said last week they remain opposed. Brooklyn GOP Senator Marty Golden introduced an anti-gay-marriage bill just two days after his ally, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, trekked to Albany to lobby for Republican support for marriage. And Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long said opposing gay marriage will be a litmus test for the party’s endorsement in 2012.
“This is not a coincidence. This is the Senate Republicans doing this,” fumed one Senate Democrat, who conceded he had no proof. “They’re setting the stage for exploring why they’re not doing this.”
The Senate majority flatly denies any such effort is at work, saying Republican leader Dean Skelos is still waiting to hear from his members before deciding whether to bring it up for a vote. (The party got $900,000 last year from Bloomberg, who said the bill deserves an up-or-down vote no matter its fate.)
“We’re going to discuss his bill as a conference in the coming weeks and make a decision whether the bill will come to the floor,” said Senate Republican spokesman Scott Reif. “We have not polled our members.”
Major religious organizations have not launched a widespread lobbying or public relations effort against gay marriage, though Archbishop Timothy Dolan called it “Orwellian social engineering” on his blog recently. The National Organization for Marriage announced a $500,000 ad campaign against it, but there has been little evidence of a strong on-the-ground effort to reinforce opposition.
That contrasts with the relentless phone banking and media hits orchestrated by the pro-marriage forces, who have coordinated under a single banner and say they are confident they will find all their necessary votes.
“We have supermajority support across the state, the governor’s strong support, and unity among the advocates,” said Brian Ellner of the Human Rights Campaign. “The chattering class may be interested in the day-to-day machinations. We’re interested in getting a bill passed, and we’re right on track to get one.”
More celebrity endorsements of same-sex marriage are scheduled for as early as today. Bloomberg, who has promised to financially support any Republican senator who votes yes, plans a high-dollar fundraiser Wednesday and a major speech Thursday.
Still, some allies see little prospect that any mayor, movie star or athlete will be enough to counter the effect the Conservative Party line has on Republicans in swing districts.
“There doesn’t need to be a whole coordinated effort when the numbers just aren’t there,” said one. “If Mike Bloomberg can guarantee 9,000 extra votes on the Republican line to make up for the 9,000 votes on the Conservative line, well, okay, then.
