Obama’s Big Mistake on Marriage
Thursday in Memphis, the town where Rev. Martin Luther King gave his life for civil rights, a group of black church leaders, many of whom marched with Rev. King, met to make a stand on marriage. More than a dozen pastors and civil rights leaders called on Pres. Obama to reverse his decision and to tell him gay marriage is hijacking the civil rights movement.
“I marched for civil rights and I can tell you: I did not march one inch, one foot, one yard, one mile for same-sex marriage,” said Rev. Bill Owens. “No right is a civil right if it’s not square with God.” (Bill Owens is also a liason to black churches for the National Organization for Marriage.) The pastors, part of the Coalition for African-American Pastors, released a statement signed by major leaders of the black church–including Bishop George McKinney, who is on the governing board of the Church of God in Christ, the largest black Pentecostal denomination, and the fifth largest Christian denomination in our nation.They announced a new campaign to gather 100,000 Signatures for Marriage, going church to church to fight for the heart and soul of the black church.This same week, Manny Pacquiao, who Time magazine dubbed the world’s greatest boxer (and who is also a Filipino legislator), came out against same-sex marriage—specifically in response to Obama’s announcement. He was then attacked as a bigot and a hater (and falsely accused of calling for the death of gay people!).Millions of Americans, especially Latinos who love both Manny and boxing, learned two things: their personal hero opposes gay marriage. And their hero was viciously attacked by gay marriage advocates for disagreeing with Pres. Obama.
Politics is not a fixed art. Polls tell you only a snapshot of what people say at one moment in time, not how a political dynamic will unfold.By coming out of the closet for gay marriage, Pres. Obama has changed the political dynamic in a way that will prove, I predict, a decisive mistake in this election cycle.
First thing you need to know:The polling on gay marriage is just wrong. Professionals are beginning to acknowledge this. The same week that Gallup was saying that 50 percent of Americans support gay marriage, the NYT/CBS News poll showed only 38 percent of Americans support it. The last poll in North Carolina showed that the marriage amendment would win, but by 16 points—six points fewer than the commanding 22-point margin.
On the night the people of North Carolina overwhelmingly rejected gay marriage 61 percent to 39 percent, the Democratic polling firm PPP tweeted, “Hate to say it, but I don’t believe polls showing majority support for gay marriage nationally. Any time there’s a vote it doesn’t back it up.”
The same 6 to 7 point gap repeatedly shows up. The polling is off.
Why? The deepest answer to that puzzle I believe also exposes Pres. Obama’s big mistake.Gay marriage advocates have succeeded in a crucial culture war task: shutting down the debate. Academics are afraid to testify, the mainstream media is one-sided. Conservative talk radio has generally been silent on the issue, at least among the “big dogs” (except for Rush). Even pastors do not necessarily address the issue. Announcements from Bishops do not necessarily make it to the people in the pews.
Hearing only one side, people begin to believe there’s something wrong with their views opposing gay marriage, that they are alone.Every time a Carrie Prejean is vilified for simply opposing gay marriage, ordinary Americans learn: it’s dangerous to speak out. Their common sense views are now “toxic.”
So they don’t speak out. They don’t tell pollsters the truth. That’s one reason the polls are repeatedly wrong.But politics is not a frozen snapshot, it’s an unfolding narrative.More importantly, we keep winning open elections despite the polls because when an amendment is put on the ballot, the political dynamic changes.
NOM and other great organizations raise money to get the message out. The media has to cover both sides, even if it does so unfairly. Pastors preach. Neighbors talk.People learn the truth: they are not alone in thinking there’s something crazy about the idea that we are all now going to pretend that two men in a union are just the same as a husband and wife. Gay marriage advocates can no longer craft public opnion by shutting out pro-marriage opinion.In the security and privacy of the voting booth, the truth comes out. And as in North Carolina, each private vote sheds light and publicly refutes the lie that the nation is inexorably moving towards same-sex marriage.
Pres. Obama, pushed by his affluent gay donors, looked at polls suggesting support for gay marriage is 50-50, and decided to gamble on telling the truth: he supports gay marriage.Republican and even Conservative consultants and pundits, looking at those same polls, uniformly urge candidates to avoid talking about gay marriage.
As a result many things are now happening that would not have happened otherwise.Including:Pastor Robert Jeffress, the Perry supporter who called Mormonism a cult at the Values Voter Summit, just endorsed Romney. Better a Mormon who supports Biblical values on life and marriage than a self-described “Progressive Christian” who doesn’t.Pres Obama has done something for Gov. Romney that Romney was having a hard time doing on his own: consolidate the evangelical base of the GOP.Latinos are discovering that gay marriage advocates are inspired by Obama’s support to attack a beloved sports icon for disagreeing.Black pastors, from the heart of the black church, are fighting for their faith and for their civil rights movement.
What will the outcome be?
We will find out in November, but here’s what I think: There is a God, and in his Providence, He urged Pres. Obama to speak the truth instead of covering up his beliefs.And the lie of inevitability will once again be exposed to the light in the privacy of the voting booth.Thank you so much for standing for all of God’s truths: for life, for marriage and for religious liberty.
